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Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA)

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Teknik Analiz - Göstergeler

Hareketli Ortalama

Hareketli Ortalama, bir döviz çiftinin belirlenmiş bir süre içindeki ortalama değeridir. Örneğin; 10 günlük Hareketli Ortalama'yı hesaplamak için son 10 günün kapanış fiyatları toplanacak ve 10'a bölünecek. Buna "Basit Hareketli Ortalama" ("Simple Moving Average"; SMA) denir.

En yaygın olara kullanılan Hareketli Ortalamalar 5, 10, 20, 50 ve 100 günlüktür. Süre ne kadar kısa seçilirse indikatör o kadar hassastır ve o kadar çabuk tepki verir. Süre ne kadar uzunsa indikatör o kadar yumuşaktır. Uzun bir süre üzerinde hesaplanan Hareketli Ortalama daha güvenilir neticeler sağlar.

Hareketli Ortalamaları eğilimin genel yönünü gösterir. Yukarıda göründüğü gibi; seçilen süre ne kadar kısaysa Hareketli Ortalama güncel fiyatlara o kadar yakındır.

Genel olarak, uzun vadeli bir Hareketli Ortalama'yı geçip onun üstünde kalan kısa vadeli bir Hareketli Ortalama yükselen bir eğilim teyit eder. Bunun tersinde, uzun vadeli Hareketli Ortalama'yı geçip onun altında kalan kısa vadeli Hareketli Ortalama alçalan eğilimi teyit eder. Hareketli Ortalamalar'ın kesişmesi bu anlamda bir sinyal olarak kabul edilir.

Hareketli Ortalamalar destek veya direnç çizgisi olarak da kullanılır.

Hareketli Ortalamalar kuvvetli eğilimi olan piyasalarda sağlıkla kullanılır. Belirgin bir eğilimi olmayan piyasalarda Hareketli Ortalamalar'ın oluşturacağı fazlasıyla kesişme noktaları yatırımcıya yanlış sinyal verir.

 

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